Odds of my Side Suit Being Ruffed

Before you lead a card from a side suit and have not drawn all the trump cards – it is extremely helpful if you are aware of the probabilities (the odds) of your card being ruffed by the opposition

How do I Calculate the odds of one of my side suit winners being trumped

Probability Table

Sometimes you are in the position of need ing to play a side suit winner before you have drawn out all the trumps. Usually this will be either in order to reduce your trump length as holding long trumps is a disadvantage when an opponent holds a trump honor and can draw two of your trumps by playing only one of his own, or when performing a trump endplay. Anyway you may or may not wish to have this card trumped.

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Cards Opposition holdsvs. Rounds Played in the Suit
2 cards100%100%100%48%
3 cards100%100%100%22%
4 cards100%100%60%10%
5 cards100%100%32%4%
6 cards100%65%17%2%
7 cards100%38%8%1%

Table: The Odds of Being Ruffed compared to how many rounds of that suit have been played

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